BITCOIN

Sunday, March 8, 2020

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Tracker

John McAfee says: 1 BTC will be worth $ 1 million by the end of 2020. Is he losing his bet?
Predicted
$ 236,868.11
Actual
$ 8,313.52
Bitcoin is
96.49%
below
2011-01-012012-01-012013-01-012014-01-012015-01-012016-01-012017-01-012018-01-012019-01-012020-01-01$ 0.10$ 0.10$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 10.00$ 10.00$ 100.00$ 100.00$ 1,000.00$ 1,000.00$ 10,000.00$ 10,000.00$ 100,000.00$ 100,000.00$ 1,000,000.00$ 1,000,000.00$ 10,000,000.00$ 10,000,000.00$ 100,000,000.00$ 100,000,000.00$ 1,000,000,000.00$ 1,000,000,000.00$ 10,000,000,000.00$ 10,000,000,000.00$ 100,000,000,000.00$ 100,000,000,000.00$ 1,000,000,000,000.00$ 1,000,000,000,000.00$ 10,000,000,000,000.00$ 10,000,000,000,000.00$ 100,000,000,000,000.00$ 100,000,000,000,000.00$ 19,343.04$ 2,244.27$ 0.30$ 1,000,000.00$ 8,313.522011-01-012020-12-31
2011-01-012017-07-17now2020-12-31
powered by coindesk

Parameters change them to make your own prediction

US$
%
US$
482.81% per year \left( (1+\frac{0.484095526}{100})^{365}-1 \right)*100
144 days \frac{\log(2)}{\log(1+\frac{0.484095526}{100})}
477 days \frac{\log(10)}{\log(1+\frac{0.484095526}{100})}
DraperMcAfee

It started with a tweet

John McAfee made a bet on July 17th 2017: One single Bitcoin would be worth $ 500,000.00 in three years. The closing price according to CoinDesk was $ 2,244.27 that day. Look what is at stake:
He later revised his bet and predicted $ 1 million by the end of 2020.

Explore the prediction curve

US$
2020-12-31, Thursday
\frac{\log\left(\frac{1000000}{2244.27}\right)}{\log\left(1+\frac{0.484095526}{100}\right)} = 1263\ days\ from\ 2017/07/17
$ 237,135.37
2244.27\times\left(1+\frac{0.484095526}{100}\right)^{965\ days}

The math behind it

Is this really possible? Bitcoin needs to grow at a rate of 0.484095526 % per day from 2017-07-17 to 2020-12-31 to get from $ 2,244.27 to $ 1,000,000.00. That is the red line on the above chart. As long as the blue line is above the red line, we are on target. Hover over the chart to get daily prices.
Compared to the enormous price changes, half a percent does not sound like much to you? This is the magic of exponential growth.

That parabolic curve - seriously?

When you look at the chart on a linear scale, the curve gets steeper and steeper. Relax! Growth curves look like that. Take the Dow Jones, a savings account with interest or bacteria growing in a petri dish.
With a fixed percentage per time, rising from 1 to 10 takes as long as from 100,000 to 1,000,000. Both is the growth by a factor of 10.
That is why many analysts like to look at charts with a logarithmic scale where the y-axis scales in orders of magnitude.

Why would it grow?

Bitcoin is scarce. There will only be 21 Million BTC. If every Millionaire in the world wants one, there are not enough for every one to have a whole BTC.
More people adopting and buying bitcoin will raise the price.
This technology is still at a relatively early stage. Think the internet in the mid-nineties when the majority thought it was only for nerds and had no real use.
The market capitalization of bitcoin is still tiny, compared to gold, credit cards or the stock market.

Such an expensive currency!

You can buy and spend fractions of a bitcoin.
Sooner or later, it will make sense to use a unit like microbitcoin aka bits (One Millionth of a Bitcoin) and Satoshis (One hundredth of a bit). Then a bit will be a Dollar and a Satoshi will be a Cent.
How does something like '1 μBTC is $ 1.07'or '1 Satoshi is $ 0.01' sound to you? A lot less expensive, right?
Maybe people will start calling a microbitcoin just bitcoin. No big deal. When we say calorie, we actually mean a kilocalorie.

What can go wrong?

Though bitcoin has proven to be secure and many people put their trust in it, there is still a lot that can go wrong. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose!
Bitcoin could go to zero and many people think so.

Not your keys not your coins!

Many have lost bitcoin when exchanges shut down or got hacked. Exchanges are not for storing your coins, wallets are.
Chose wallet-software you trust and use it on hardware you trust. Know your secret keys or your seed phrase and keep them secret.
There are different levels of secuity and usability. You might want to start with a trustworthy wallet on your phone. Once you feel comfortable sending, receiving bitcoin and recovering your wallet from your seed phrase or backup, you might want to get a hardware wallet like ledger or trezor.
Storing bitcoins in the bitcoin-wiki is a nice article.

Is bitcoin wasting electricity?

Mining bitcoin is hard on purpose. The so called proof of work is what controls the money supply and what makes the ledger tamper resistant.
Bitcoin is both a currency and a ledger for storing all transactions. Gold would not have much value if it were easy to find or if it were cheap to create. A ledger that was easy to tamper with would not be trustworthy.
The bitcoin ledger is called blockchain and the entries are bundled into so called blocks. Supercomputers all over the world are competing to find the next block.
All these miners do not trust each other and reject invalid blocks. Someone trying to tamper with the blockchain would need an incredible amount of computing power and electricity to overpower all the others.
What about CO2-emissions? Many miners are located in places with a surplus of electricity (geothermal power in Iceland, hydroelectric or solar power in the middle of nowhere). It is cheaper to send a bitcoin-block over the internet than building more power lines.
Still not convinced? Think for a minute how complicated the current fiat banking system is and you will agree that bitcoin is a lot more efficient.
The Blogger Dan Held has written a very detailed post PoW is Efficent with calculations and comparison to other currencies and assets.

Who is that John McAfee guy?

The founder of McAfee Antivirus. Some say he is a genius. Some say he is a lunatic. But that does not matter.
This is not about McAfee. It is about comparing the price to a prediction that sounds too good to be true.
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1 comment:

  1. M1000August 18, 2021 at 10:41 AM

    Hey Thanks for sharing this blog its very helpful to implement in our work.



    Regards
    Bitcoin Account Recovery

    ReplyDelete

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